Currículo

Scenarios and Strategic Foresight SSFOPT6

Contextos

ECTS

6.0 (para cálculo da média)

Objectivos

• Understand how uncertainty shapes strategic decision-making and why foresight is critical for effective strategy. • Analyze external environments at multiple levels, including the macro-environment and the industry environment, using appropriate strategic frameworks. • Recognize key forces and uncertainties that influence how industries, ecosystems, and competitive dynamics evolve over time. • Use scenario thinking to explore alternative futures and challenge dominant assumptions about industry and organizational evolution. • Evaluate strategic choices across different possible futures, considering issues of robustness, flexibility, and adaptation. • Reason about strategic action under uncertainty, including when to commit and when to preserve strategic options. • Communicate strategic insights clearly, linking environmental analysis, alternative futures, and strategic implications.

Programa

1. Strategy and decision-making under uncertainty; introduction to strategic foresight. 2. Environmental scanning of the macro-environment and industry environment. 3. Competitive dynamics, ecosystems, and industry evolution. 4. Technology, disruption, and strategic options under uncertainty. 5. Scenario planning as a tool for reframing strategic problems. 6. From scenarios to strategy: robust versus contingent strategic choices. 7. Global, geopolitical, and organizational challenges in uncertain futures. 8. Emerging trends, weak signals, and extreme events. 9. Scenario-based strategic recommendations and presentations.

Método de Avaliação

1. Engagement – Sessions combine interactive lectures, in-depth case discussions, and short exercises that connect theoretical concepts to real managerial decisions. 2. Collaboration – Students work in teams and in-class presentation and a concise written report. 3. Enrichment – Guest speakers provide firsthand insights into emerging trends, strategic uncertainty, and real-world challenges faced by organizations. Continuous Assessment (50%): • Class Attendance and Participation – 20% • Group Project (Presentation + Concise Report) – 30% Written Exam (minimum grade is 8 points) – 50%

Carga Horária

Bibliografia

Principal

• Contemporary Strategy Analysis: Grant, R. M. 2024 978-1-394-25156-8

Secundária

• Living in the Futures: How Scenario Planning Changed Corporate Strategy: Wilkinson, A. & Kupers, R. 2013

Disciplinas de Execução

2025/2026 - 2 Semestre

2024/2025 - 2 Semestre