Sumários

Lecture 2

12 Fevereiro 2026, 09:00 • RUI PAULO

One parameter models: the binomial model. Exchangeability and de Finetti's theorem. Posterior for binary data and uniform prior. Sufficiency and Bayesian sufficiency. Posterior for binary data and beta prior. Conjugacy. Prediction of the next observation.

Lecture 1

5 Fevereiro 2026, 09:00 • RUI PAULO

Basic probability: joint and conditional distributions; Bayes theorem for densities/probability mass functions.

Basic structure of the Bayesian approach to statistics. Illustrative example: prevalence of an infectious disease. Another application to Bayesian statistics: variable selection in the context of a linear regression model.

Lecture 0

29 Janeiro 2026, 09:00 • RUI PAULO

Practical aspects of the curricular unit, in particular, pre-requisites, syllabus, bibliography and assessment.

Review of basic probability.