Sumários

Lecture 4

20 Fevereiro 2025, 09:00 • Rui Paulo

Bayesian confidence intervals. Comparison with frequentist confidence intervals. Highest posterior density regions. Examples with the beta-binomial model.

Poisson model: sufficiency, conjugate prior, posterior and its properties. Interpretation of the parameters of the gama prior. Posterior summaries. Prediction of the next observation. Example: number of children of women in two groups.

Lecture 3

13 Fevereiro 2025, 09:00 • Rui Paulo

One parameter models: the binomial model. Exchangeability and de Finetti's theorem. Posterior for binary data and uniform prior. Sufficiency and Bayesian sufficiency. Posterior for binary data and beta prior. Conjugacy. Prediction of the next observation.

Lecture 2

6 Fevereiro 2025, 09:00 • Rui Paulo

Basic structure of the Bayesian approach to statistics. Illustrative example: prevalence of an infectious disease. Another application to Bayesian statistics: variable selection in the context of a linear regression model.

Lecture 1

30 Janeiro 2025, 09:00 • Rui Paulo

Practical aspects of the course. A review of basic probability theory.