Currículo

Scenarios and Strategic Foresight SSF

Contextos

Groupo: Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão > 1º Ciclo > Unidades Curriculares Optativas

ECTS

4.0 (para cálculo da média)

Objectivos

This curricular unit aims to provide a solid background in Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight, which is particularly relevant in the context of accelerating change, turbulence, uncertainty and unpredictability that characterizes current times. It favours tools that allow the mastery of operational aspects through simulations. In particular, this curricular unit provides students with the tools to: - Understand Strategic Foresight theoretical and methodological bases and the various ways of trying to anticipate the future; - Seize the concept of Scenario as an instrument for simulating possible futures; - Understand the centrality of uncertainty as Scenarios' raw material; - Understand how Foresight and Scenarios are key for corporate strategy; - Operate key concepts of Strategic Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios; - Apply the concepts and techniques that integrate the main methodologies of construction of Scenarios.

Programa

1. Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: origins, principles and key concepts. - The Foresight concept. Forecasting versus Foresight. - Strategic Foresight: principles, objectives and schools of thought. - Uncertainty management and organizational learning: the essential role of Foresight in Strategy. 2. Horizon scanning, trends, megatrends uncertainties, wild cards and weak signals. - Key concepts in action (hands-on simulation). 3. Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: methodological toolbox. - Techniques and tools for creativity and innovation. - Techniques and tools for the identification and analysis of key factors. - Techniques and tools for the identification and analysis of key actors. 4. Developing Scenarios. Scenarios as the main Foresight tool. - Scenarios: concept, process and methodological characteristics. - The Intuitive Logics School of Scenario Building (?the Shell School?). Hands-on simulation. - Other Scenario Planning schools. - Michael Porter?s Industry Scenarios. - The Probabilistic Modified Trends School. - La Prospective (the French Foresight School) and Morphological Analysis. Hands-on simulation. 5. From scenarios to organizational outputs. From anticipation to strategy / from anticipation to action. - Implicationsandoptions. - Exploring Scenarios using different Strategy tools. Hands on simulation. 6. Designing and leading Foresight and Scenario Planning processes.

Método de Avaliação

Trabalho de grupo: 80% Participação nas aulas: 20%

Carga Horária

Carga Horária de Contacto -

Trabalho Autónomo - 68.0

Carga Total -

Bibliografia

Principal

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (4th ed.): Goodwin, P., Wright, G. 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Chichester. [Chapter 15 "Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty"]
How to be Rigorous with Scenario Planning.: Godet, Michel 2000 Foresight ,Vol. 2, no.1

Secundária

A review of scenario planning: Amer, M., Daim, T.U., Jetter, A. 2013 Futures, 46, 4623-4640
Scenario Thinking and Strategic Modelling: Coyle, R. G. 2003 in The Oxford Handbook of Strategy, edited by David Faulkner and Andrew Campbell, pp. 308-349. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Manuel de Prospective Stratégique 2 - L'art et la Méthode: Godet, Michel 1997 Paris: Dunod
The Art of the Long View: Schwartz, Peter 1991 Doubleday Currency, New York.
From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action: Wilson, I. 2000 Technological Forecasting and Social, Change, Volume 65, Number 1: 23-29.